Alice in Texas

Not writing here anymore- see top post for details of my new blogs.

Thursday, July 21, 2005


Well, I predicted the US election right, so here's my tuppence-worth on the London bombings.

I think the first set of bombers were not suicide bombers, I think they were tricked into getting killed. There are arguments to this effect in various quarters, but my main one is I think the average disaffected British young man would be perfectly happy to murder other people but extremely unlikely to kill himself at the same time. I just don't think they would have wanted to do that. One of the arguments supporting this theory has been that suicide bombers strap bombs to themselves, they don't put them in rucksacks. Quite so: they need to be sure they will die instantaneously, and their superiors need to ensure they can't change their minds. But I also think it is irrational to assume they meant to die just because they did die, when their deaths were most convenient for the co-ordinating group rather than themselves (and their families).

The second set of attempted bombs was very similar to the first set. I think this indicates it was the same group organising things. But the second set of bombers threw their rucksacks then ran off, whereas the first set got killed next to their rucksacks. This is because the second set were avoiding death more carefully than the first. Luckily, they also avoided other people's deaths, by having useless bombs that did not go off. Which is quite funny, really.

My prediction is that whatever UK-based group made all this happen will be discovered and dismantled fast. It doesn't matter who is in charge, the co-ordinating centre will be taken out, representing a big defeat for terrorism to add to the utterly humiliating failure of today's damp squibs. They are on their way out.


At 3:32 PM, Blogger gcotharn said...

Your confidence is infectious.


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